Wednesday, December 03, 2014

North Vancouver Election Results Analysis

Back on October the 11th. under the post 'All in' an anonymous
made the prediction below about the election results.
Except for Bill Bell to replace Craig Keating in the City which was
a bit odd, the prediction was accurate. While much of the return of 
incumbents of both elections was quite predictable, what stands 
out is the election of Mathew Bond to District council. This is a
candidate who pretty much came out of nowhere, but was 
elected on his first try. So why was he elected when he wasn't
broadly known in the community? 

Will the real anonymous stand up? 
   Anonymous said...
Predictions:

DNV Council (In Order)
Robin Hicks
Roger Bassam
Doug Mackay-Dunn
Lisa Muri
Mathew Bond
Jim Hanson

CNV Mayor
Darrell Mussatto

CNV Council
Don Bell
Linda Buchanan
Pam Bookham
Bill Bell
Rod Clark
Holly Back
Saturday, October 11, 2014 2:14:00 pm

11 comments:

Griffin said...

Bond can attribute his win to the NSMBA plain and simple. He is an impressive young professional but given that it's his first try, there is no other explanation considering two or three other strong candidates. Let's just hope that he is not swayed by his buddies.

Anonymous said...

Bond had great signs, a professional association of 700 engineers backing him, was in the advertising with Hicks, Bassam and Mackay-Dunn, and had a huge email list of mountain bikers. It was a solid campaign compared to the other new guys.

When I made the prediction I actually completely forgot about Craig accidentally, but I still would have been wrong anyway because Craig would have knocked out Holly Back.

I also got the DNV order all mixed up, but I will tag some of that to making the prediction so early in the campaign. Roger Bassam didn't campaign as hard as he did in previous campaigns which dropped him in the standings. Also, as the campaign progressed Mackay-Dunn and Muri decided to capitalize on a low growth platform which is always popular. What was amusing to watch was that all four incumbants support a 1% growth rate, but all had a very different idea of why and how.

John Sharpe said...

I don't know 'Griffin', there are only about 600 registered NSMBA members on the north shore. Add all their friends to that number plus the alleged "700" engineers and their friends and it still doesn't come anywhere near the 5,871 votes he received.

To Anon 8:14 PM,

So you're saying he 'marketed' himself very well. I'm not sure what you mean about "was in the advertising with Hicks, Bassam and Mackay-Dunn," because I'm pretty sure he did not team up with anyone on advertising.

Bassam lost ground because he wasn't perceived to have taken on the "low-growth" theme like other incumbents in my opinion.

John Sharpe said...

Also wanted to say that Mr. Bond is certainly different in that he has a registered handle here on the blog and actually uses his name.

No other elected official has ever done that whether it be an MLA, MP, Mayor, or Clr. in the City or District.

Anonymous said...

Not true, Pam Bookham had a registered handle on here for a time, and so did Ernie Crist, but Ernie spent more time posting anonymously about himself.

Mathew Bond, Roger Bassam, Doug Mackay-Dunn, Robin Hicks, Linda Findlay, Wayne Hunter, Yael Drinkle, Jessica Stanley and Barry Forward all participated in a joint mail drop to several thousand households. It is not a slate, because it includes Cons, Libs, NDippers, and those incumbents have voted against each other plenty.

John Sharpe said...

I stand partially corrected. Pam Bookham has never been registered user of nvp.com since I've been the administrator, but she may have briefly around the time of the 2005 municipal election when the blog first sarted.

The late Ernie Crist to my recollection never had authorship privileges until after the 2005 election. If you recall Mr. Crist did not seek re-election in 2005. He was however a very prolific contributor to the blog for quite sometime after his retirement.

This brings to mind that I would like to have all blog archives from March 2005 to 2011 reinstated, but according to Barry Forward, "he had deleted all of that stuff." Too bad, I feel that for that six year period the blog was a significant piece of North Vancouver political history.

Anonymous said...

Are you suggesting Matt Bond is, or is expecting to be an author on here? I find that hard to believe.

If he is just simply registered with NVP or Blogger then he is no different from Bookham, Crist, Forward, etc.

John Sharpe said...

I suggested authorship status to Mr. Bond because he could not get his comments to stay up. Once he had registered authorship the problem disappeared. I don't know if Mr. Bond intends to write posts here, but he has at least written registered comments(same thing) under the "Please get out and Vote today" thread. He has the option to post or just comment. He now has the same status as Ernie Crist had in his post elected life. Bookham MAY have had 'authorship' at one time, but I believe it was BEFORE she was elected in 2005.

So I stick to my original comment that Mr. Bond is a first in that regard, that he is an elected official AND he has authorship privileges. Not that it means a hill of beans if he doesn't use it. And he will probably be too busy to blog much now anyway.

Mathew Bond said...

Interesting to see an outside analysis of my campaign strategy. I had some tried and true strategies, but also did a few things differently than other candidates.

Anonymous said...

Well done Matt, now do the job well and we'll see if you get re-elected!

Raj Express said...

nice blog