Saturday, March 25, 2017

Boring Gets It Done | Andrew Saxton for Leader

If you've been following the Conservative leadership race, you likely have been watching the front runners like Kevin O'Leary, Kellie Leitch and maybe Michael Chong.  It's been easy to forget that we have a local boy running as well, and he just released the following campaign video.


Anonymous said...

I think he underestimates how boring the entire 14 candidates really are.

Anonymous said...

This comment is in part to add to the conversation and in part simply for me to work out how this is playing out... sorry for the long post.

The Conservatives are using a ranked ballot IRV system that is weighted at the riding level, so your highest eligible candidate is what is counted at each elimination. That gives you a portion of the riding level weighted vote, which is then combined with the other ridings, and the bottom candidate is then eliminated, and the votes are all tallied again with the eliminated person removed and their support redistributed on their next highest eligible candidate.

That means that if you are a mid-range candidate hoping to get the benefit of peoples second place votes, you only get the benefit of people below you being eliminated and recalculated. In Saxton's case, he will probably get enough first place votes to place him around 8th after the first count with (in no particular order, because it doesn't mathematically matter to Saxton) Leitch, Sheer, O'Leary, O'Toole, Bernier, Chong and Raitt ahead of him. Behind him will be (The order does sort of matter, but in terms of first place votes they will all be neck and neck for the bottom), Alexander, Blaney, Lemieux, Trost, Obrhai, Peterson.

Chong, Raitt and Alexander are the key to Saxton surviving into the late counts. All three could throw decent numbers his way as their supporters are clearly avoiding the leading candidates and not voting along social conservative lines. Their second place votes conceivably could go to candidates that are either already eliminated and thus eventually Saxton, or directly to Saxton. The bottom five will be such small numbers that I don't think they will matter and frankly so many of them are social conservative candidates that they will become Sheer or Leitch support before they become Saxton support.

I hope they draw out the results just for the nerds like me. Announce the first elimination, take 20 minutes to verify while thanking the eliminated, and then next count. Final winner after 2 1/2 hours of analysis and goodwill.

Good luck Andrew.

Anonymous said...

I used a simpler voting system to ditch Andrew Saxton.

As one of his constituents, I sent him an email during his tenure as my MP.
I never heard a word back or an acknowledgement of receipt or a 'thanks but I'm busy right now' from his office. That was enough for me. Whatever the reasons might be, it was clear that he either couldn't run a local office or didn't consider his voters' opinions to be of any importance. Yes Andrew, there ARE people who vote for the candidate rather than the party and silence does communicate something.

Jonathan Wilkinson, my newest MP, has also received an email from me since he took over and I did receive an email back and although it carried a cachet of boilerplate , it was at least a response. Now his response was clear about what he stands for and tells me that I was right not to vote for him last election, yet I do give him a thumbs up for answering my criticism albeit with party line propaganda. My one other interaction with his office was entirely satisfactory and I would say went well beyond a mere perfunctory phone call back. They actually TRIED.

Ignore your constituents at your peril Leitch, Sheer, O'Leary, O'Toole, Bernier, Chong and Raitt.

Anonymous said...

Saxton apology... sort of.

He fired the staff, and replaced them, but there is no question in my mind, the original staff were following his lead.